We noted in our last communication that a number of technical factors would likely pressure the market lower. September prices did fall further, and now we see the market in a place of technical support.
We noted the potential of a sell off in August based on resistance levels from the strong negative trend which began in 2022. The resistance we marked on our charts did turn the market lower until support levels were hit. At this point participants are likely confused as to whether to buy the dip or sell the rally.
Adding to the uncertainty is the US dollar staging a strong rally,
Since the early 80's rates have been in a long-term down trend that took yields from high teens to near zero levels by 2021. And holding bonds over this period of time then made sense and was a good idea.
Fast-forward to 2023 and...
The S&P progressed higher during much of the month of July, but ended the month with a gap higher that failed and betrayed an area of strong resistance. We discussed this zone in previous letters as being the location of the initial sell-off which began in early 2022.
The S&P moved higher throughout the month of June creating some excellent swing trading opportunities for long positions. Volatility returned to the market and created surging waves into the price levels where the sell-off began in early 2022.
Is the party over? Many investors may be wondering if the stock market's advance in 2023 is for real and a good time to stay invested or even add to an existing positing. In other words does the market have more to go or has it run out of gas?
Reacting to market volatility could hurt your chances of reaching your long-term investing goals. The trouble is that many people don’t understand stock market volatility and how it impacts their portfolio strategy.